Die politischen Entscheidungsträger in Peking sind entschlossen, das Stromnetz des Landes zu einem der schnellsten und "intelligentesten" der Welt zu machen. Da sich das Wirtschaftswachstum des Landes in anderen Bereichen verlangsamt, werden Vorhaben wie die Netzmodernisierung von Chinas gezielterem Ansatz zur Förderung der Infrastruktur und der steigenden Nachfrage nach umweltfreundlicherer Energie profitieren.
Ein intelligentes Stromnetz ist ein Netzwerk, das den Austausch von Strom und Daten in beide Richtungen ermöglicht. Es kann künstliche Intelligenz nutzen, um Angebot und Nachfrage dynamisch aufeinander abzustimmen und das schwankende Angebot auszugleichen.
Auch wenn Chinas allgemeine Wirtschaftsaussichten getrübt sind, erwarten wir, dass sich Investitionen in Bereiche wie die Smart-Grid-Technologie als starker Motor erweisen werden.
Grünere Ziele
Die neuen Investitionen werden zum Teil durch Chinas Ziel ausgelöst, bis 2060 kohlenstoffneutral zu werden. Das Land verbrauchte im vergangenen Jahr rund 1 Billion Kilowattstunden Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien (ca. 12 Prozent des gesamten Verbrauchs). Über die Hälfte des gesamten Stromverbrauchs entfällt aber auf Kohlekraftwerke. Auf dem Weg zum Netto-Null-Ziel will China den Anteil der neuen Energien auf über 50 Prozent steigern. In Europa beispielsweise machen erneuerbare Energien bereits fast ein Viertel aus.
Mit der zunehmenden Verbreitung von Wind- und Solarenergie in China stellt ihr vergleichsweise unbeständigerer Status als Stromerzeugungsquelle eine ernsthafte Herausforderung für die traditionellen Netze dar, die in der Regel für die Übertragung von konstantem Kohlestrom ausgelegt sind. Die oft abgelegenen Standorte von Wind- und Solarkraftwerken abseits der Zentren tragen ebenfalls dazu bei, dass China sein Stromnetz aufrüsten muss.
Auswirkungen auf das Netz
Als Reaktion auf diese Herausforderungen haben chinesische Netzbauer Systeme mit künstlicher Intelligenz entwickelt, die auch mit grossen Stromverbrauchern interagieren können, um deren schwankenden Bedürfnisse zu berücksichtigen. Chinas grösster Netzbetreiber, die State Grid Corporation, hat in den letzten Jahren weltweit einen Spitzenplatz unter den Anmeldern von KI-Patenten eingenommen und macht damit Technologiegiganten wie IBM, Microsoft, Toshiba und Samsung Konkurrenz.
China hat auch Spitzentechnologien für die Fernübertragung mit Ultrahochspannung (UHV) entwickelt, die von den Netzen westlicher Länder derzeit nicht erreicht werden. Die neuesten UHV-Netze in China können Gleichströme mit bis zu 1300 Kilovolt übertragen. Sie haben heute eine installierte Gesamtlänge von über 40.000 km und werden schnell ausgebaut.
Die Übertragungseffizienz der UHV-Netze wurde erheblich verbessert, was dazu beiträgt, das Ungleichgewicht zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage an neuer Energie zu verringern. Im Gegensatz zu Europa, wo die Energie oft vor Ort verbraucht werden kann, muss China den Grossteil der Nachfrage aus den östlichen Provinzen mit dem Angebot aus westlichen Landesteilen decken. Wind- und Sonnenenergie legt bis zu 3000 km zurück.
Ein neues Ökosystem
Mit dem Ausbau des Netzes entsteht eine neue, milliardenschwere Industrie. Zu den profitierenden Unternehmen gehören Netzbetreiber, Bauunternehmen und Lieferanten von Schlüsselkomponenten. Diese Firmen entsprechen oft einer nachhaltigen Investitionsthese und sind so positioniert, dass sie dem Druck der derzeit schwächelnden Verbrauchernachfrage und des Immobilienabschwungs standhalten können.
Natürlich gibt es, wie bei jeder neuen Technologie, potenzielle Fallstricke. Und wie bei vielen industriellen Grossprojekten sollten die Anleger auf Risiken wie Überinvestitionen und Fehlallokation von Ressourcen achten. Bislang sind wir jedoch der Meinung, dass der Ausbau der intelligenten Stromnetze in China durch eine solide Nachfrage nach erneuerbaren Energien gestützt wird. Zudem liegt ein wesentlicher Vorteil eines Top-Down-Ansatzes mit nationaler Prioritätensetzung in der schnellen Umsetzung.
Auch wenn das Hauptaugenmerk auf den Möglichkeiten im eigenen Land liegt, meinen wir, dass einige der aufstrebenden chinesischen Smart-Grid-Firmen auch das Potenzial haben, zu starken Exporteuren zu werden. Für Chinas Smart-Grid-Technologien hält die Zukunft starkes Wachstum bereit.
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10/10/2022
Fidelity International
Wie Smart-Grid-Technologien helfen können, Chinas Herausforderungen für grünes Wachstum zu meistern
