2022: EIN RABENSCHWARZES JAHR FÜR DIE TECH-BRANCHE
Der bekannteste ETF für US-Softwarebranche, der IGV verliert 39,8%, der Halbleiterindex SOX 39,2% und der Tech-Index von Hongkong 42,4%.
Bereits jetzt zeichnet sich 2022 als ein rabenschwarzes Jahr für den Technologiesektor ab, nachdem dort jahrelang verlässlich gute Renditen zu verzeichnen waren.
Alle Segmente des Sektors erlebten 2022 lange, schmerzhafte Abwärtsphasen, die in eine schwere Kapitulation mündeten. Den Anfang machten chinesische Tech-Aktien und die Halbleiterindustrie, dann waren die GAFAM-Unternehmen (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple und Microsoft) an der Reihe, und am 4. November 2022 kapitulierten schließlich auch die Software-Aktien.
Dieser historische Kurssturz im Technologiesektor ist Teil einer breiteren Sektorrotation. Kapital wird aus der Tech-Branche (insbesondere den GAFAM) abgezogen und fließt in zwei Arten von Sektoren:
•Zyklische Sektoren (Energie, Finanzen und Industrie)
•Defensive Sektoren: Sektoren, bei denen auch in einer Rezession relativ stabile Ergebnisse erwartet werden (Pharma und Lebensmittel)
Damit stellt sich nun die Frage, ob Technologiewerte vor einer längeren Phase der Underperformance stehen oder wieder attraktiv werden können.
Folgende Faktoren sprechen aus unserer Sicht für eine optimistische Einschätzung:
1.Die Segmente, die zuerst kapituliert haben (chinesische Tech-Werte und Halbleiter), erholen sich schon wieder.
2.Einige Halbleiterfirmen haben ihre Prognosen bereits dreimal revidiert. Somit sind darin die Risiken bereits stärker eingepreist.
3.Die Bewertungen haben ein Niveau erreicht, das für Anleger mit langem Anlagehorizont attraktiv ist. Man findet nicht selten Unternehmen mit zweistelligen Wachstumsraten, deren Bewertungen jedoch denen des Telekomsektors ähneln.
4.Die Fundamentaldaten des Sektors sind nach wie vor überaus überzeugend, und auch bei den Frühindikatoren deutet nichts auf eine bevorstehende Wende im Halbleiter-Superzyklus hin.
Auf lange Sicht sind Technologiewerte daher weiterhin attraktiv. Die wichtigste Frage ist, wann der richtige Zeitpunkt für eine Neupositionierung wäre.
Hierzu bedarf es Antworten auf folgende Fragen:
Wie weit werden die US-Zinsen steigen?
Die US-Notenbank passt ihre Strategie an. So dürfte sie künftig kleinere Zinsschritte machen, dabei aber beharrlich den Zielzinssatz weiter nach oben treiben. Sie macht damit ihre zukünftige Politik von der Daten-lage abhängig, und dabei insbesondere von der Ent-wicklung am Arbeitsmarkt, einem Schlüsselpara-meter, um keine Lohn-Preis-Spirale in Gang zu setzen. Wir sind jedoch der Ansicht, dass sich ein Wendepunkt abzeichnet und dass ein Großteil der geldpolitischen Straffung hinter uns liegt. Die Fed dürfte die Aus-wirkungen ihrer Geldpolitik auf die Wirtschaft genau verfolgen und befürchtet zu Recht eine mögliche Schieflage des Immobilienmarkts. Die Kurzfristzinsen werden sicherlich noch weiter steigen, aber die Langfristzinsen möglicherweise nicht ...
Unser Szenario: Stabilisierung der Langfristzinsen
Ist 2023 mit weiteren Abwärtskorrekturen der Ergebnisse zu rechnen?
Davon gehen wir aus, weil die Prognosen der Analysten in Rezessionsphasen hinterherhinken, und einige Unternehmen dazu tendieren, für ihre Ausblicke nur bereits erlebte Verschlechterungen (und nicht noch ausstehende) zu berücksichtigen.
Unser Szenario: rückläufige Ertragskraft (gemessen am EPS) in dieser Konjunkturphase zu erwarten
Steht ein weiterer Rückgang der Bewertungs-kennzahlen bevor?
Davon gehen wir nicht aus. Im Gegenteil: Künftige Enttäuschungen sollten durch einen Anstieg der Bewertungskennzahlen kompensiert werden; das zeigt ein Blick auf frühere Krisen, vor allem, wenn sich die Zinsen stabilisieren, und umso mehr, wenn sie sinken.
Unser Szenario: Keine Kompression der Bewertungs-kennzahlen bei gleichzeitiger Stabilisierung der Zinsen und Normalisierung des Angebotsschocks
Haben wir den ersten Akt der Tech-Götterdämmerung (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple und Microsoft) erlebt?
Die Kapitalisierung dieser fünf Tech-Giganten wiegt in den Indizes derzeit so schwer (ca. 25% des S&P), dass diese Titel eine spezielle Analyse verdienen. Die Geschichte des Technologiesektors ist gekennzeichnet vom Aufstieg und Niedergang großer Unternehmen, die von einer neuen Generation innovativerer Akteure mit disruptiven Geschäftsmodellen abgelöst wurden. Der massive Rückgang der Marktkapitalisierung, den wir im Oktober und November bei diesen fünf Titeln erlebt haben, könnte in diese Richtung weisen. Und doch hüten wir uns vor einer solchen Schlussfolgerung.
Microsoft gegenüber bleiben wir weiterhin sehr optimistisch eingestellt. Grund ist die Fähigkeit des Konzerns, in Schlüsselsegmenten wie Teams, Cyber-sicherheit oder der Power Platform nachhaltig zu wachsen. Auch für Google sind wir zuversichtlich, zum einen aufgrund der Resilienz seines Kerngeschäfts, aber auch wegen seiner Investitionen in künstliche Intelligenz (Waymo, Calico, Verily). Dies ist bei den anderen Unternehmen weniger der Fall, bei denen die Gewinnaussichten kürzlich um den Faktor 4 ge-schrumpft sind und insbesondere die erwarteten Werbeeinnahmen deutlich nach unten korrigiert wurden. Auch das Smartphone-Segment von Apple entwickelt sich negativ, was sich unserer Analyse zufolge in der Aktienbewertung niederschlagen dürfte.
Unser Szenario: es wird eine natürliche Auslese stattfinden, die das Ende von GAFAM einläutet.
Ist mit einer Entspannung im chinesisch-amerikanischen Technologiekonflikt zu rechnen?
Eher nicht. Die Interessensgegensätze rund um Themen wie künstliche Intelligenz, die Verflechtung der Lieferketten in der Halbleiter- und Hardware-Branche und damit auch Taiwan sind zu tiefgreifend, als dass hier ein Ende oder eine Verlangsamung des Tempos der Restriktionen zu erwarten ist.
Unser Szenario: das optimistischste Szenario wäre aus unserer Sicht die Beibehaltung des Status quo
Ist auch in anderen Teilen des Technologiesektors mit einem Einbruch zu rechnen?
Sollte sich die Rezession verschärfen, wäre ein denkbarer Kandidat hierfür eindeutig der Bereich Infrastruktur-Software wie ERP (SAP, Oracle, Workday). Gleiches gilt für einen größeren Teil der Halbleiterfertigung für die Industrie.
Unser Szenario: Vor diesem Hintergrund empfehlen wir auf Sektoren zu setzen, die den Absturz bereits hinter sich haben
Wie lautet also unser Fazit? Was wären die not-wendigen Katalysatoren für eine Erholung des Sektors?
1.Eine Pause bei den Zinserhöhungen
2.Das Ende der Abwärtskorrekturen bei den Gewinnerwartungen (einige Segmente starten sogar sechs bis neun Monate vor dem Tiefstand der Ergebnisse wieder an der Börse durch)
3.Eine Wiederbelebung der Fusions- und Übernahmeaktivitäten
4.Der Einstieg opportunistischer und aktivistischer Anleger in unterbewertete Aktien.
Wenn diese Kriterien erfüllt sind (dem nähern wir uns an), würden wir zunächst Technologiewerten aus den Schwellenländern den Vorzug geben, dann der Halb-leiterindustrie und schließlich dem Softwaresektor. Ein Ende der Null-Covid-Politik Chinas könnte etwa der Startschuss für Anleger sein, die Risiken in den Port-folios wieder zu erhöhen, wovon der Technologie-sektor zweifellos profitieren würde. Auf die Plätze ...
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11/23/2022
ODDO BHF Asset Management
Auf die Plätze, fertig ...
Wir empfehlen auf Sektoren zu setzen, die den Absturz bereits hinter sich haben.
Laurent Denize, Co-CIO ODDO BHF