Die Zinsen haben gedreht, und somit sind Businessmodelle, die dank billigem (oder viel zu billigem) Geld Wachstum kaufen konnten, in Schwierigkeiten. Investoren bevorzugen wieder rentable Anlagen mit Dividenden und einem soliden Geschäftsmodell.
Wie hoch war denn die Übertreibung dieses Mal? Berechnet man das Verhältnis des MSCI Growth Index relativ zum MSCI Value Index seit der Lancierung dieser beiden
Indizes im Dezember 1973 und wertet man dieses ganz einfach statistisch aus, ergibt sich Folgendes: Zur Zeit der sogenannten Technologie- und Telekom-Blase im März 2000 befand sich diese Ratio bei ca. 1,8 SD (Standardabweichung) weg vom Mittelwert. Im Herbst 2020 und im Dezember 2021 bildete die Ratio neue Höchststände und befand sich 5 SD weg vom Durchschnitt! 5-SDEreignisse wären in der Rückversicherungsbranche solche, die einmal alle 4.776 Jahre auftreten können. Nun gut, wir wissen natürlich, dass im Finanzbereich die Renditen etc. nicht standardnormalverteilt sind, dennoch glauben wir, sollte dies Grund genug sein, einem Value Manager, wenn es denn noch solche gibt, wieder einmal zuzuhören.
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