Wertentwicklung im August
Die Strategie ist im August mit +3,2% in CHF, +2,6% in EUR und +2,2% in USD wieder auf einen Aufwärtstrend eingeschwenkt. Damit liegt die Jahresperformance bei +14,3% in CHF, +14,5% in EUR und +10,5% in USD. Der Monat markierte das Ende der Gewinnsaison für das 2. Quartal, die sich als eine der besten herausstellte, die je gemeldet wurden, sowohl hinsichtlich der Anzahl der Unternehmen, die den Konsens übertrafen, als auch hinsichtlich des Ausmaßes der positiven Überraschung. Auf makroökonomischer Ebene setzte sich das harte Durchgreifen der chinesischen Regulierungsbehörden fort, während die Rede von Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole keine weitere Klarheit über den Beginn des Tapering brachte.
Positionierung
Auf Sektorebene haben wir unser Engagement in pflanzlichen und biologischen Nahrungsmitteln leicht reduziert und die Erlöse in Agritech und nachhaltige Verpackungen umgeschichtet.
Auf geografischer Ebene leistete unsere Übergewichtung in Europa einen positiven Beitrag, während unsere Untergewichtung in den USA die Performance leicht schmälerte.
Bewegungen im August
Hauptverkauf - Reduzierung: Burcon NutraScience
Wichtigste Käufe - Aufstockung: Lindsay, GPK
Ausblick
Da die Gewinnsaison hinter uns liegt, wird sich der Markt wahrscheinlich mehr auf die makroökonomischen Daten und die Gesundheitssituation konzentrieren. Die großen geografischen Regionen befinden sich in sehr unterschiedlichen Stadien ihrer Erholung, wobei China wahrscheinlich den Höhepunkt der Wachstumsimpulse und des Spitzenwachstums erreicht hat, während Europa und die USA sich an einem Wendepunkt befinden. Der japanische Markt könnte interessant sein, da das Land immer noch unter der vierten Welle leidet und seine Höchststände vom Februar noch nicht überschritten hat.
Was China betrifft, so glauben wir, dass sich aufgrund des anhaltenden regulatorischen Drucks einige Chancen ergeben haben. Daher werden wir in den kommenden Wochen unser Augenmerk darauf richten, zu prüfen, ob wir einige Schnäppchen finden können. Unternehmen, die für uns von Interesse sind, sollten auf dem Inlandsmarkt aktiv sein und nicht im Visier der Regulierungsbehörden stehen.
Im August war Ball Corp, der weltgrößte Hersteller von Aluminiumdosen, unser Top-Titel. Die jüngste Kursdynamik war enttäuschend, da eine Reihe von Ankündigungen neuer Kapazitäten die Anleger ratlos zurückließen, wie die Marktposition von Ball in fünf Jahren aussehen könnte. Der Bericht für das 2. Quartal ließ den Aktienkurs steigen, da das Management den Markt beruhigte, nachdem es neue ambitionierte Zieie für die Rendite der Aktionäre herausgab. Ball kündigte an, dass 2021 1 Mrd. USD an Barmitteln an die Aktionäre zurückfließen werden, die sich auf Dividenden und Rückkäufe verteilen, wobei sich diese Zahl 2022 verdoppeln soll (2 Mrd. USD oder 7,5 % der Marktkapitalisierung). Diese Zahl ist höher und kommt früher als erwartet, was im Hinblick auf die Gewinnentwicklung sehr beruhigend ist.
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