Das Europäische Parlament hat Mitte Februar mit Vietnam das Freihandelsabkommen EVFTA beschlossen, um am Wachstum dieser Region zu profitieren! Wie Sie wissen, ist dieser spannende Markt seit 2006 immer wieder Thema im DFA, zuletzt hatten wir Ihnen in Ausgabe 5/2018, welche Sie in unserem Archiv online abrufen können, einen aktuellen Lagebericht gegeben und Ihnen mit dem LUMEN VIETNAM FUND USD (WKN A1J 057) einen interessanten aktiv gemanagten Fonds für dieses durchaus aussichtsreiche Land vorgestellt. Vietnam verfügt über eine sehr junge Bevölkerung (70% unter 35 Jahre alt), die immer besser ausgebildet ist. Auch hinsichtlich des Wirtschafts-wachstums belegt Vietnam stets vorderste Plätze, und dies soll gemäß einigen Experten auch in den nächsten Jahren so bleiben. Bedenkt man, dass rund 50% aller Smartphones von Samsung in Vietnam produziert werden, 80% aller Chips von Intel aus Vietnam stammen, rund 80% aller Laserdrucker von Canon aus Vietnam kommen, so kann man sich die Bedeutung dieses Marktes sehr gut vorstellen. Auch deutsche Firmen sind verstärkt in Vietnam vertreten, sei es, um beim Aufbau der Infrastruktur aktiv zu sein (bspw. Siemens) oder auch in der Produktion der Güter vor Ort wie z.B. Bosch, Fresenius oder Seidensticker. Gem. Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammer (DIHK) exportierten deutsche Unternehmen in 2018 Waren im Wert von 4,1 Mrd. Euro nach Vietnam und umgekehrt wurden Waren im Gegenwert von fast 10 Mrd. Euro aus Vietnam importiert. Somit mausert sich Vietnam zu einem wichtigen Handelspartner für Deutschland und die EU, was nun durch das neue Handelsabkommen auch vertraglich fixiert wurde. Neben steuerli-cher und zollseitiger Vereinfachung und Erleichterung sind aber auch Themen wie die Einführung und Festigung von Umwelt- und Menschrenrechts-Standards in den Verträgen verankert. De facto ist Vietnam immer noch ein kommu-nistischer Einparteienstaat, der sich wirtschaftlich zwar weit geöffnet hat, aber gegen Regimegegner sehr hart vorgeht. Insofern will die EU hier mittels Durchsetzungsbeauftragten die Umsetzung der vereinbarten Klima- und Arbeits-schutzstandards überwachen.
Auch hinsichtlich der Kapitalmärkte hat sich einiges getan, die Gewichtung des vietnamesischen Aktienmarktes in den Frontier Markets Indizes (MSCI Frontier Markets) hat stark zugenommen und liegt akuell bei über 15%! Damit stellt Vietnam nach Kuwait die zweitgrößte Position im Index dar. Betrachtet man die reine Marktkapita-lisierung von 194 Mrd. USD, so liegt Vietnam sogar weit vor Ländern der Emerging Markets wie z.B. der Türkei, Qa-tar oder auch Polen, Kolumbien oder Peru. Es scheint daher nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis Vietnam auch in die Riege der Emerging Markets aufgenommen wird. Besonders interessant für Investoren könnte die Tatsache sein, dass der vietna-mesische Aktienmarkt (VNAS) recht geringe Korrelationen zu den großen Indizes wie MSCI Emerging Markets (0,36), MSCI World (0,35), aber auch S&P 500 (0,29) und Euro Stoxx (0,31) aufweist. Somit eignet sich eine Investi-tion in Vietnam sehr gut als Beimischung in einem Aktienportfolio. Bislang können ausländische Investoren nur be-schränkt Aktien kaufen, d.h. manche Aktien dürfen von ausländischen Investoren gar nicht gekauft werden, und wenn, dann nur ohne Stimmrechte oder nur bis zu einem gewissen Anteil des Freefloats (50%). Somit gibt es quasi zwei Ak-tienmärkte: einen für Inländer und einen für ausländische Investoren. Bei vielen großen vietnamesischen Titeln ist die 50%-Grenze erreicht, sodass ein ausländischer Investor in diese nicht mehr investieren kann. Da gleichzeitig aber die inländische Aktiennachfrage recht begrenzt ist, hat dies Auswirkungen auf die Kurse. Doch auch hier hat man eine Lösung gefunden: Inländische Investoren haben ETF´s aufgelegt, welche in inländische Titel investieren dürfen und diese ETF´s dürfen wiederum von ausländischen Investoren gekauft werden. Somit ist auch weiterhin für Nachfrage gesorgt, was sich auf Dauer positiv auf die Aktienkurse auswirken dürfte. Auch die weiterhin fortschreitende Privati-sierung von Staatsunternehmen bringt neue Investitionsmöglichkeiten mit sich, sodass auch hier weitere Chancen für Investoren liegen.
Der LUMEN VIETNAM FUND USD ist weiterhin in der Spur und hebt sich als aktive Lösung doch deutlich von passiven Instrumenten ab! Gerade der Investmentansatz von Lumen und ihre Präsenz vor Ort zeigen seit Auf-lage des Fonds ihre Wirkung. Zur Erinnerung: Es werden 10-15 Wachstumssektoren definiert und dann eine Auswahl an 20-30 Titeln gewählt, die nach einem strengen fundamentalen Bottom up-Ansatz ausgewählt werden: am liebsten Unternehmen aus Nischen mit hohen Eintrittsbarrieren, starken Bilanzen und hohen Free Cash Flows. Die Unterneh-mensbesuche werden von den Analysten vor Ort durchgeführt, welche bereits im Jahr 2006 auch die ESG-Kriterien berücksichtigen und seit 2010 voll integriert haben. Die Ausschlusskriterien sind für einen Frontier Markets Fonds sehr hoch und werden laufend überprüft. Schwerpunkt der Investitionen sind Mid- und Small-Caps (über 60% des Portfolios), da das Management überzeugt ist, dass diese einerseits das Wachstum deutlich besser widerspiegeln als die Large-Caps und andererseits unter den kleineren Unetrnehmen noch relativ günstig bewertete Unternehmen gefun-den werden können. So sind die Bewertungen (KGV) der Titel im Portfolio des LUMEN VIETNAM FUND USD im Schnitt mit 9,4 deutlich unterhalb der des Marktes mit 13,5. Auch die Korrelation des Fonds zu den großen Indizes ist nochmals geringer als die oben beschriebene auf Gesamtmarktebene. Um noch besser über den Fonds und die Region informiert zu sein, haben wir mit dem verantwortlichen Fondsmanager Mario Timpanaro gesprochen, der erst kürzlich von seinem Vietnam-Besuch zurückgekehrt ist.
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