Kolumne von Frank Fischer, CEO & CIO der Shareholder Value Management AG | 12. Oktober 2020 | www.shareholdervalue.de
Wie immer zu Beginn eines Quartals, ist mal wieder der Blick in die Glaskugel gefragt. Wie werden die Quartalszahlen ausfallen, wie sich danach die Börsen entwickeln? Nun, eines scheint klar und wäre nicht weiter verwunderlich: Die Gewinne der US-Unternehmen dürften auch im dritten Quartal gegenüber dem Vorjahr gefallen sein. Analysten erwarten einen Gewinnrückgang um rund 18 Prozent gegenüber Q3 2020. Gegenüber dem zweiten Quartal, als die Gewinne um knapp ein Drittel einbrachen, würde dies aber schon eine Verbesserung darstellen. Glaubt man den Analysten, werden vor allem Energie- und Industriewerte eher negative Zahlen vorlegen, während IT- und Gesundheitsaktien weiter zugelegt haben. Big-Tech wie Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook & Co. könnten also wieder glänzen.
Auch die ersten, bereits vorgelegten Zahlen geben Anlass zur Hoffnung. So hat der US-amerikanische Tech-Riese IBM die Erwartungen der Analysten erreicht, McDonald’s hat die Quartalsdividende erhöht, und in Deutschland hat Henkel mehr Umsatz erzielt, während der Onlinehändler Zalando von der Coronakrise gar kräftig profitierte und im dritten Quartal mehr umgesetzt und höhere Gewinne einfahren konnte. Dadurch konnte die Jahresprognose angehoben werden. Dass auf der anderen Seite die Pandemie das Geschäft des US-Kreuzfahrtriesen Carnival praktisch zum Erliegen gebracht hat, war zu erwarten, auch wenn ein Umsatzeinbruch von 99,5 Prozent schon extrem ist.
Wallstreet hat Angst vor Biden-Sieg
Wie dem auch sei: In diesem Quartal dürften die Unternehmensberichte von den Entwicklungen der US-Präsidentschaftswahlen überschattet werden. Angesichts dicht beieinander liegender Umfragewerte in Swing States könnte es trotz eines Vorsprungs von Herausforderer Joe Biden doch noch eng werden. Sollte jedoch Biden gewinnen, befürchten viele Investoren neuerliche Belastungen für die US-Unternehmen, vor allem, wenn die Reformen der Trump-Administration wie etwa die Unternehmenssteuerreform zum Teil oder ganz rückgängig gemacht werden. Die Analysten der Deutschen Bank haben für den Fall eines Sieges von Joe Biden verschiedene Szenarien durchgerechnet und erwarten, dass sein Sieg bei einer gleichzeitigen demokratischen Mehrheit in beiden Kammern des Kongresses im Prinzip gut für die Börse sein dürfte. Allerdings dürften, so die Erwartungen, nicht alle Demokraten bereit sein, das Wahlprogramm Bidens eins zu eins umzusetzen. Er wird wohl Kompromisse eingehen müssen, um ausreichend Demokraten bei den Abstimmungen hinter sich zu bringen. Die Steuerreform dürfte dann abgemildert werden, aber es sollte – trotz Kürzungen – noch ausreichend Investitionsvolumen bleiben, um die US-Wirtschaft, und so auch die Firmengewinne, anzuschieben. Kann die Corona-Pandemie eingedämmt werden, und bleibt die US-Notenbank Fed bei ihrer lockeren Geldpolitik, dann hätten die US-Börsen weiterhin Luft nach oben. Aber wie gesagt: noch ist das Kaffeesatz-Leserei mit vielen Fragezeichen.
Angst vor Zerschlagung von Amazon & Co.
Sollten die Demokraten neben der Präsidentschaftswahl auch die Wahlen zum Senat gewinnen, könnte es den Tech-Giganten Amazon, Apple, Facebook und Google an den Kragen gehen. Denn ihnen würde dann möglicherweise die Zerschlagung drohen. Immerhin wird über 35 der 100 Sitze im Senat abgestimmt. Noch haben die Republikaner im Senat die Mehrheit, doch diese könnte kippen. Das hätte weitreichende Folgen, denn bei der jüngsten Sitzung des Wettbewerbs-Unterausschuss im Repräsentantenhaus kam dieser zum Schluss, dass Amazon, Apple, Facebook und Google ihre Marktmacht missbrauchen würden. Unternehmen, die einst selbst „rauflustige Start-ups“ gewesen seien, „haben sich in die Art von Monopolen verwandelt, wie wir sie zuletzt in der Ära der Öl-Barone und Eisenbahn-Magnaten gesehen haben“, heißt es in dem 400-seitigen Bericht. „Diese Firmen haben zu viel Macht“ – und diese Macht müsse eingeschränkt werden.
Erinnerungen an die Zerschlagung von „Big Oil“
Das hätte dann auch Folgen für unseren Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen, denn hier sind Aktien von Facebook und Alphabet vertreten. Deshalb werden wir die weitere Entwicklung sehr genau verfolgen. Auf der anderen Seite sollte man sich die Zerschlagung von „Big Oil“ im Jahre 1911 noch einmal ins Gedächtnis rufen. Damals wurde der Gigant Standard Oil des Öl-Barons John D. Rockefeller nach jahrelangem Rechtsstreit zerschlagen und in 34 Einzelgesellschaften zerlegt. Aus einem Unternehmensteil, der Standard Oil of New Jersey, wurde später der Öl-Gigant ExxonMobil, der bis heute eine wahre Dollar-Druckmaschine ist. Seit 2008 erzielte der Gigant mehr als 300 Milliarden Dollar Reingewinn! Und durch eine attraktive Dividende profitierten auch die Anleger bislang mit. Die Summe der Einzelteile kann also durchaus mehr sein.
Rockefellers Erben sind – soweit bekannt – nicht mehr signifikant an ExxonMobil beteiligt. Nach etwas älteren “Forbes”-Zahlen soll die Familie Rockefeller aber immer noch über ein Vermögen von elf Milliarden Dollar verfügen. Das sollte reichen, um auch den nächsten Generationen ein entspanntes Leben zu garantieren.
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