Ausblick auf 2020
Die Erträge des letzten Jahres werden sich wahrscheinlich 2020 nicht wiederholen. Das liegt vor allem daran, dass die Anfangsbewertungen, insbesondere bei den Spreads, aber auch bei den lokalen Zinssätzen, ungünstiger sind. Hier nun drei Szenarien für die weitere Entwicklung. Sie gehen von parallelen Spread- oder Renditeverschiebungen aus und beinhalten den anfänglichen Carry, nicht aber die Differenz der Renditebewegungen im Jahresverlauf.
Szenario A: Unverändert
Das unveränderte Szenario – was in den Schwellenländern fast nie zu erwarten ist – zeigt Renditen, sofern die Rahmenbedingungen stabil bleiben: im Wesentlichen also Renditen, die nur auf dem Carry und ohne Währungsbewegungen gegenüber dem US-Dollar basieren.
Szenario B: Hausse
Ein Aufwärtsszenario würde ein unterstützendes makroökonomisches Umfeld widerspiegeln, in dem sich das Wachstum in vielen aufstrebenden Volkswirtschaften verbessert, die USA sich nur leicht verlangsamen, die Zentralbanken der Industrieländer weiterhin eine lockere Geldpolitik verfolgen und die globalen geopolitischen Risiken, von denen es viele gibt, nicht zunehmen.
Szenario C: Baisse
Ein Baisse-Szenario spiegelt ein schwierigeres makroökonomisches Umfeld mit einer weiteren Verlangsamung des globalen Wirtschaftswachstums wider oder ein Szenario einer weniger akkommodierenden Politik der globalen Zentralbanken und steigender Inflation, einer Verschärfung der geopolitischen Risiken oder politischer Fehler in verschiedenen Volkswirtschaften.
Da nur wenige Zentralbanken der Emerging Markets die Zinsen in diesem Jahr weiter senken werden, dürften in allen Szenarien eher die Währungen als die Zinsen der wichtigste Renditetreiber sein. Die meisten Zentralbanken – egal ob in Schwellenländern oder Industriestaaten – sind inzwischen am Ende des geldpolitischen Lockerungszyklus oder stehen kurz davor, so dass der Spielraum für eine Rally der lokalen Zinsen deutlich geringer ist.
Trotz der günstigen Bewertungen der Schwellenländerwährungen bleibt M&G in der Asset Allocation angesichts der Unsicherheit der verschiedenen geopolitischen Risiken und der möglichen Auswirkungen auf den US-Dollar insgesamt neutral positioniert. Ähnlich wie bei meiner Einschätzung für 2019 ist nicht davon auszugehen, dass die Asset Allocation ein wesentlicher Treiber für eine überdurchschnittliche Wertentwicklung sein wird, sondern eher die Positionierung an den Märkten und, in geringerem Masse, in bestimmten Ländern, sowie ein angemessenes Risikomanagement. Auch wenn Schwellenländer-Anleihen im Vergleich zu der Bewertung vor einem Jahr nicht günstig scheinen, haben die meisten anderen Anlageklassen wie Aktien oder US-High Yield ebenfalls deutlich zugelegt. So könnte die Anlageklasse also relativ gesehen in einem Umfeld anderer, niedrig verzinslicher Anlagen immer noch attraktiv sein.
Claudia Calich, Fondsmanagerin des M&G (Lux) Emerging Markets Bond Fund
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Schwellenländer-Anleihen: Drei Szenarien für 2020
Ausblick auf 2020