Die Eskalation zwischen dem Iran und den USA lässt einen schwerwiegenden Konflikt in einer bereits instabilen Region befürchten. Zwar gibt es aus religiösen, ethnischen oder strategischen Gründen zahlreiche Konflikte in der Region, doch die gezielte Tötung eines iranischen Generals im Irak lässt einen direkten Konflikt zwischen der mächtigsten Militärmacht der Welt und der Islamischen Republik befürchten.
Dennoch dürfte die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines offenen Kriegs zwischen beiden Ländern aufgrund der ungleichen Kräfteverhältnisse sehr gering sein: Nach jahrelangen Embargos und Wirtschaftssanktionen gilt die iranische Armee gegenüber Uncle Sam als relativ schwach und die Ausrüstung als veraltet. Zudem hat Präsident Trump die Rückholung von US-Soldaten zum festen Ziel seiner Amtszeit erklärt. Eine Konfrontation erscheint umso unwahrscheinlicher, als Donald Trump an dieser Front isoliert wäre und vermutlich weder die Unterstützung der UNO noch der NATO hätte. Überdies sind die USA durch die Schieferöl-Revolution mittlerweile gleichzeitig Selbstversorger und Nettoexporteur von Erdöl. Das strategische, politische und wirtschaftliche Interesse an einer solchen Operation erscheint daher begrenzt.
Auch wenn ein Konflikt keine sehr glaubwürdige Annahme darstellt, ist dies aufgrund des unvorhersehbaren Handelns beider Seiten dennoch nicht absolut auszuschließen. Überlegen wir also, welche Auswirkungen dies auf wirtschaftlicher und finanzieller Ebene haben könnte.
Die unmittelbarste Folge dürfte der deutliche Anstieg der Barrel-Preise einhergehend mit einer größeren Nachfrage nach Fluchtwerten und in erster Linie nach Gold sein. Laut Schätzungen passiert ein Fünftel der weltweiten Ölexporte die Straße von Hormus. Dazu gehören 41 % der chinesischen Importe. Eine Blockade würde einen jähen Anstieg der Inflation verursachen. Aber der Schock wäre gewiss weniger heftig, als dies früher der Fall gewesen wäre. Die Flexibilität, die durch die Ausbeutung von Schieferölvorkommen gegenüber traditionellen Quellen entsteht, könnte eine mögliche Förderkrise tatsächlich abfedern: US-Schieferöl hat den doppelten Vorteil, mit geringen Investitionen rasch der Produktion zugeführt werden zu können. Zusätzlich könnten galoppierende Ölpreise auch eine ökologische Wirkung haben und die Energiewende beschleunigen, indem sie erneuerbare Energien aus wirtschaftlicher Sicht attraktiver machen.
Die Unternehmen der Region, die größtenteils mit dem Energie- und dem Finanzsektor verknüpft sind, könnten von der Börse heftig abgestraft werden. Allerdings stellen sie unter den Großunternehmen der Welt nur eine sehr kleine Minderheit dar: außer der staatlichen saudischen Ölgesellschaft SAUDI ARAMCO, die vor einigen Monaten an die Börse ging, gehört kein börsennotiertes Unternehmen der Region zu den 250 umsatzstärksten Unternehmen der Welt.
Auch die Auswirkungen auf das Vertrauen der Unternehmen und privaten Haushalte dürften spürbar sein. Am stärksten könnten darüber hinaus die Konjunktur und die Bewertung von Finanzanlagen betroffen sein. Doch die Zentralbanken und die Regierungen würden auf ihre geld- und haushaltspolitischen Konjunkturinstrumente setzen, um die Wucht des Aufpralls zu mindern.
Auch in dieser heiklen Situation gilt es, einen kühlen Kopf zu bewahren. Genau mit dieser Haltung reagierten die Märkte auf die jüngsten Ereignisse. Der Erdölpreis ist zudem wieder auf sein Vorkrisen-Niveau zurückgekehrt.
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01/13/2020
La Financiere de L’Echiquier
Die Spannungen im Nahen Osten und ihre Folgen für die Märkte
