Der breite europäische Leitindex STOXX 600 erreichte mit 380 Punkten bei einer Bewertung von 10,4 (geschätztes 12-Monats-KGV ) den niedrigsten Stand seit Ausbruch der COVID-Krise (18. März 2020: 10,3). Auch Hochzinsanleihen haben seit Jahresbeginn mehr als 15% an Wert eingebüßt, fast so viel wie Aktien. Vor diesem Hintergrund drängt sich die Frage auf: Sind die derzeitigen Niveaus ein guter Einstiegspunkt?
Phase der KGV-Kompression weitgehend vorbei
Zunächst einmal besteht kein unmittelbarer Zusam-menhang zwischen der Bewertung und der zukünfti-gen Wertentwicklung. So macht es für die Performance einer Anlage über einen Zeitraum von 30 Jahren betrachtet nahezu keinen Unterschied, ob das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis beim Einstieg oberhalb oder unterhalb des historischen Bewertungsdurchschnitts des STOXX 600 (d. h. einem KGV von 14) lag. Die Bewertungen sind allerdings dann von Bedeutung, wenn extreme Niveaus erreicht wurden. Kauft man den STOXX 600 bei einem Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) von unter 10, besteht eine historische Wahrscheinlichkeit von 82%, in den kommenden 12 Mona-ten eine positive Performance zu erzielen, und die sich durchschnittlich auf 18% beläuft. Um diesen attraktiven Einstiegspunkt zu erreichen, müsste der STOXX 600 noch um mindestens 5%, also unter die Marke von 360 Punkten, fallen. Die KGV-Kompression ist demnach weitgehend vorbei; bleibt die Frage, wie sich die Gewinne entwickeln werden (das „G“ in „KGV“).
Zukünftige Unternehmensergebnisse sollten im Fokus stehen
Die Analysten haben die Gewinnprognosen für die europäischen Unternehmen bereits deutlich nach unten korrigiert. Waren sie vor ein paar Monaten für 2023 noch von einem Anstieg des Gewinns pro Aktie (EPS) von 16% ausgegangen, erwarten sie heute nur noch eine Zunahme um 3%, ein Niveau, das weit unter der Inflationsrate liegt.
Man darf nicht vergessen, dass bei gleichbleibendem Umsatzvolumen die Inflation den Umsatz auf EUR-Basis automatisch steigen lässt. Diese Korrektur ist unter Berücksichtigung der aktuell fallenden Reallöhne also durchaus substanziell. Zudem könnte eine globale Rezession die Rohstoffpreise in Europa schneller fallen lassen und dazu beitragen, die Gewinnrückgänge 2023 deutlich zu begrenzen. Die Schwäche des Euro hat darüber hinaus nicht nur negative Auswirkungen. Unternehmen, die in den Dollarraum exportieren, erzielen Währungsgewinne, wenn sie ihre Exporterlöse abführen und in Euro umtauschen: man rechnet mit einem positiven Wechselkurseffekt von ca. 5%. Ein Anstieg des Gewinns je Aktie (EPS) um 3% für 2023 ist daher durchaus vorstellbar.
Welche Sektoren lohnen sich besonders?
In diesem von geopolitischen Unsicherheiten und steigenden Zinsen geprägten Umfeld sollte die Priorität auf der Kalkulierbarkeit und der Resilienz von Cashflows liegen. Der Gesundheitssektor profitiert nicht nur generell von einem starken Dollar, er bietet unserer Einschätzung nach auch ein attraktives Rendite-Risiko-Verhältnis. So werden mehrere große europäische Pharmafirmen (AstraZeneca, Roche, Merck) in der Lage sein, ihre Umsätze in den kommenden Jahren um 4 bis 5% zu steigern, gute Margen zu erzielen und entsprechend angemessene Bewertungen (KGV von 14-15) zu bieten. Innerhalb des Technologiesektors präsentiert sich das Teilsegment Software/IT-Dienstleistungen (Cap Gemini, SAP) nach dem Rückgang der Bewertungen wieder attraktiver. Zudem konnten wir in unseren letzten Gesprächen mit den Unternehmen den Eindruck gewinnen, dass die Nachfrage weiterhin relativ robust ist. Der digitale Wandel steht nach wie vor ganz oben auf der Agenda großer Unternehmen, die hierdurch mit Blick auf die inflationsbedingten, logistischen und wirtschaftlichen Unsicherheiten agiler und wettbewerbsfähiger werden wollen. Über den Wechsel zu Cloud-Lösungen können große Softwarekonzerne darüber hinaus ihre wieder-kehrenden Umsätze steigern. Kapitalintensive und hoch verschuldete Sektoren mit begrenzter Preissetzungsmacht, wie z. B. die Telekombranche und regulierte Versorgungsunternehmen, sehen wir weiter mit Vorbehalt. Trotz attraktiver Bewertungen ist es unserer Auffassung nach auch für einen Einstieg in Branchen wie Nicht-Basiskonsumgüter und Industrie noch zu früh, da hier die Abwärtskorrektur der Gewinnerwartungen noch nicht weit genug fortgeschritten ist.
Noch zu früh für eine deutliche Neupositionierung in europäischen Aktien
Unser Fazit ist: Anlageentscheidungen sollten nie allein auf der Grundlage der Bewertungen getroffen werden. Klar ist aber auch, dass europäische Aktien weiterhin den wachsenden Risiken einer globalen Rezession ausgesetzt sind, bedingt durch restriktivere Finanzierungsbedingungen und eine aggressive Politik der Zentralbanken. Selbst wenn ein beträchtlicher Pessimismus bereits eingepreist wird, drücken steigende Realzinsen weiterhin auf die Risikoprämien. Der Rückgang der Bewertungskennzahlen bei Aktien wurde durch den Anstieg der realen Anleiherenditen bereits mehr als ausgeglichen. Zudem besteht das Risiko, dass die implizite Risikoprämie globaler Aktien mit den geplanten künftigen Zinserhöhungen der EZB wieder auf ihre langfristigen Durchschnittswerte zurückfällt. Vor diesem Hintergrund halten wir es für sinnvoll, einen Rückgang des STOXX600 auf unter 360 Punkte abzuwarten, bevor wir uns in großem Umfang in europäischen Aktien neu positionieren.
Hochzinsanleihen haben einiges zu bieten
Auch wenn das Risiko einer Rezession steigt, stellen europäische Unternehmensanleihen kurzfristig eine interessante Alternative zu Aktien dar. Auch im Vergleich zu europäischen Staatsanleihen ist das Segment attraktiv. Die Zinsen für europäische Unternehmensanleihen sind inzwischen ausreichend gestiegen, um beträchtliche Renditeaufschläge gegenüber Staatsanleihen mit gleicher Duration zu bieten. Die Gefahr einer Fragmentierung besteht nach wie vor, und das von Deutschland geplante 200-Milliarden-Programm wird die Unterschiede beim Kaufkraftverlust – so die Wahrnehmung mancher – in den verschiedenen Volkswirtschaften noch vergrößern. Dies könnte zu Unmut innerhalb der Europäischen Union führen. Schließlich verfügt ein Land wie Deutschland über deutlich größere Mittel als beispielsweise Italien, um die Auswirkungen der Energiekrise abzufedern (Schuldenquote im Verhältnis zum BIP von 150% gegenüber 69%). Darüber hinaus ist die EZB noch weit davon entfernt, ihren Zinserhöhungszyklus zu beenden. Der Cocktail aus Volatilität und steigenden Zinsen könnte noch einige Monate lang für ein schwieriges Marktumfeld sorgen.
Innerhalb des Anleihesegments bieten nur Hochzinsanleihen ein Renditeprofil, das langfristig an das von Aktien heranreicht. Im Hochzinsuniversum der Eurozone haben Anleihen mit einem Rating von BB die höchste Bonität und machen den größten Anteil des Segments aus. Mit einer Rendite auf Verfall (YTM) von 6,6% liegen sie 480 Basispunkte über der Rendite dreijähriger deutscher Bundesanleihen. Zum Vergleich: Die Risikoprämie für Aktien liegt bei 7,4%. Kurz gesagt: Anleihen bieten erstmals seit vielen Jahren wieder einige Vorzüge. Endlich eine gute Nachricht in diesem schwierigen Umfeld: Die Rendite feiert ihr Comeback!
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10/19/2022
ODDO BHF Asset Management
Günstige Bewertungen – notwendig, aber nicht hinreichend
Im aktuellen von Unsicherheit geprägten geo- und geldpolitischen Umfeld ist es entscheidend, den Fokus auf robuste Cashflows zu legen.
Laurent Denize, Global CIO ODDO BHF Asset Management