Frau Dwek, Sie haben einen sehr anspruchsvollen Job. Wie sieht eine klassische Arbeitswoche von Ihnen aus?
Ich habe nicht wirklich eine typische Woche - das ist das Schöne an dieser Rolle, es ist immer etwas los an den Märkten! Ich verbringe viel Zeit damit, die Nachrichten zu verfolgen und Recherchen zu lesen, versuche, meine Ansichten zu hinterfragen, verschiedene Perspektiven zu sehen und Anlageideen zu entwickeln. Und dann verbringe ich viel Zeit damit, Charts und andere Materialien zusammenzustellen, um unsere Ansichten zu unterstützen und zu kommunizieren. Ich schreibe eine Reihe von Research-Publikationen, die ich mit unseren Kunden teile. Ich reise oft nach Paris und London, um mein Team und die Multi-Asset-Portfoliomanager innerhalb der Natixis Investment Managers Solutions-Gruppe zu sehen, mit der wir eng zusammenarbeiten.
Wie gross ist Ihr Team, und wo ist es domiziliert? Und für wie viel Kapital erarbeiten Sie die Strategien?
Wir sind ein Team von drei Strategen, und der Rest meines Teams ist in London stationiert. Es gibt auch Strategen in unserem US-Hauptquartier in Boston, mit denen wir regelmässig sprechen. Wir arbeiten innerhalb der Natixis Investment Managers Solutions-Gruppe, die etwa 65 Mrd. Euro an kombinierten Beratungs- und Vermögensverwaltungsmandaten verwaltet, hauptsächlich in Multi-Asset-Portfolios.
Der Nachrichtenfluss ist mit dem Internet extrem schnell geworden. Wie kann man da mittel- und längerfristige Prognosen festlegen?
Wir haben die Art und Weise, wie wir die langfristig erwarteten Renditen ermitteln, nicht wirklich geändert. Was sich geändert hat, ist das Tagesgeschäft. Ich denke, wichtig ist, wie wir als Investoren auf den ständigen Nachrichtenfluss reagieren. Wir glauben, dass die Formulierung eines Basisfalls und der Versuch, den Lärm zu durchschauen, anstatt auf jede einzelne Schlagzeile zu reagieren, die beste Art und Weise ist, Portfolios im aktuellen Umfeld aufzubauen. Natürlich müssen wir flexibel bleiben, falls sich die Umstände der Basisannahme dramatisch ändern, aber der Versuch, die Märkte zu sehr zu timen, funktioniert nicht. Und als Ausgangspunkt bleiben klare Risiko- und Renditeziele auf lange Sicht der Schlüssel.
Können Sie verraten: Wie sehen in wenigen Worten Ihre Modell-Portfolios für 2020 aus?
Wir bleiben mit einer Übergewichtung in Aktien und einer Untergewichtung in Anleihen investiert. Wir haben eine Übergewichtung in europäischen Anlagen, die dank dem «Waffenstillstand» in den Handelsstreitikeiten zwischen den USA und China weiterhin von einem sich verbessernden globalen Umfeld profitieren dürften. Dies wird jedoch möglicherweise nicht das ganze Jahr 2020 andauern, und wir erwarten mittelfristig eine überdurchschnittliche Qualitäts- und Wachstumsentwicklung, da die Wachstumssorgen wahrscheinlich nicht vollständig verschwinden werden. Wir bevorzugen Kredite gegenüber Staatsschulden und haben derzeit Allokationen in High Yield und Hartwährungsschulden der Schwellenländer.
Das bedeutet: Ihr Haus ist positiv für die Aktienmärkte gestimmt…
Ja, wir glauben, dass ein sich verbesserndes globales Umfeld und eine verringerte Unsicherheit in Bezug auf den Handel und Brexit weiterhin Risikoanlagen unterstützen sollten. Die jüngsten Spannungen im Nahen Osten machen deutlich, dass die Volatilität anhalten wird, aber im Moment ändern sie nichts an unserem mittelfristigen konstruktiven Ausblick. Die Gewinnerwartungen für 2020 sind gesunken, was für eine Aufwärtsüberraschung sorgen könnte, wenn sich das Wachstum wie erwartet erholt. Die Bewertungen sind nicht billig, aber sie sind auch nicht überzogen. Sie könnten aber letztlich als Obergrenze für die Performance dienen. Bei den Aktien sind noch keine signifikanten Zuflüsse zu verzeichnen, was darauf hindeutet, dass viele Anleger die Rally von 2019 (zu einem grossen Teil) verpasst haben. Daher sind wir der Ansicht, dass dies Ausgangslage unterstützend sein sollte.
To continue please select your investor category and your country of residence.
Select your Country:
Qualified Investor
This Swiss Fund Platform website is only intended for qualified investors within the meaning of Art. 10 par. 3 and 3ter of the Collective Investment Schemes Act (CISA). Qualified investors are professional clients within the meaning of Art. 4 par. 3-5 and Art. 5 paras. 1 and 4 FinSA as well as private clients who meet the requirements of Art. 10 par. 3ter. In particular, qualified investors are:
- Financial intermediaries under the Banking Act (BankA), the Financial Institutions Act (FinSA) and the CISA;
- insurance companies in accordance with the Insurance Act (ISA);
- Foreign clients subject to prudential supervision such as financial intermediaries and insurance companies;
- Central banks;
- Public corporations with professional treasury services;
- Pension funds and institutions that, according to their purpose, serve occupational pension plans, with professional treasury;
- Company with professional treasury;
- Private investment structures built for high net worth individuals with professional treasury services;
- Institutional clients pursuant to Art. 4 para. 4 FinSA;
- Large companies that meet the requirements of Art. 4 para. 5 lit. a-c FinSA;
- private clients, for whom a financial intermediary within the meaning of Article 4 paragraph 3 letter a FinSA or a foreign financial intermediary subject to equivalent prudential supervision provides asset management or investment advice within the meaning of Article 3 letter c items 3 and 4 FinSA within the framework of a long-term asset management or investment advisory relationship, unless they have declared that they do not wish to be considered as such. The declaration must be in writing or in another form verifiable by text.
LEGAL NOTES
Persons who access information on the website of Swiss Fund Platform AG (hereinafter also referred to as "SFP" or "We" or "Us") agree to the following terms and conditions. Swiss Fund Platform AG acts solely as a platform and does not offer any financial services or advice. The information, newsletters or articles on economic and financial topics published on the SFP website do not constitute an aid to decision-making or a recommendation for economic, legal, tax or other advisory questions, or an offer or invitation to buy or sell investment instruments, to effect transactions or to conclude any legal transaction, and in particular do not constitute investment advice or asset management and cannot replace advice and assessment tailored to the individual case.
For qualified advice, please contact an appropriate professional.
The information published is provided by SFP for personal use and information purposes only and is subject to change without notice. SFP takes great care to ensure that the information contained on this website comes from reliable sources, but makes no warranties (express or implied) as to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information published on the SFP website. In particular, SFP is under no obligation to remove or update any outdated information from the SFP website or to expressly mark it as such.
Swiss Fund Platform recommends that you read this disclaimer regularly in order to familiarize yourself with any changes. The date of the last update is listed below.
ACCESS RESTRICTION BY DOMICILE AND INVESTOR CATEGORY
This Swiss Fund Platform website is only intended for qualified investors within the meaning of Art. 10 par. 3 and 3ter of the Collective Investment Schemes Act (CISA). Qualified investors are professional clients within the meaning of Art. 4 par. 3-5 and Art. 5 paras. 1 and 4 FinSA as well as private clients who meet the requirements of Art. 10 par. 3ter. In particular, qualified investors are:
- Financial intermediaries under the Banking Act (BankA), the Financial Institutions Act (FinSA) and the CISA;
- insurance companies in accordance with the Insurance Act (ISA);
- Foreign clients subject to prudential supervision such as financial intermediaries and insurance companies;
- Central banks;
- Public corporations with professional treasury services;
- Pension funds and institutions that, according to their purpose, serve occupational pension plans, with professional treasury;
- Company with professional treasury;
- Private investment structures built for high net worth individuals with professional treasury services;
- Institutional clients pursuant to Art. 4 para. 4 FinSA;
- Large companies that meet the requirements of Art. 4 para. 5 lit. a-c FinSA;
- private clients, for whom a financial intermediary within the meaning of Article 4 paragraph 3 letter a FinSA or a foreign financial intermediary subject to equivalent prudential supervision provides asset management or investment advice within the meaning of Article 3 letter c items 3 and 4 FinSA within the framework of a long-term asset management or investment advisory relationship, unless they have declared that they do not wish to be considered as such. The declaration must be in writing or in another form verifiable by text.
When accessing the Swiss Fund Platform website for the first time, the user must select his or her country of domicile and confirm the category of investor to which he or she belongs. Access to this website is restricted to professional investors as defined by FinSA, all other persons are not granted access.
PERFORMANCE
Swiss Fund Platform AG and this website serve only as a platform for external third parties who may use it to offer services, obtain information or network.
SFP has no or only limited influence on the services offered by external third parties and does not guarantee their success or performance. Any investment or transaction made in the course of such services is made outside the Platform and at your own risk. SFP is not liable for any damages incurred in this context.
LIMITATIONS OF LIABILITY
Swiss Fund Platform AG disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages, which may be incurred through the use of or access to the SFP website, or any links contained on the SFP website that lead to third-party websites. SFP has no influence whatsoever on the information published on third party websites and excludes any liability in this respect. SFP expressly warns of the risk of viruses and the possibility of targeted hacking attacks. In order to combat viruses, the use of current browser versions and the installation of constantly updated anti-virus software are recommended. SFP disclaims any liability for damages resulting therefrom, in particular for damages caused by viruses, hacker attacks or other manipulations of the EDP system of the Internet user by unauthorized persons.
USE OF THE SFP WEBSITE
The entire content of the SFP website is protected by copyright. You may not reproduce (in whole or in part), transmit or make available (by electronic means or otherwise), modify, link into or use for any public or commercial purpose the SFP website without the prior written permission of Swiss Fund Platform AG.
The use of this website, including any contact forms, does not constitute any contractual relationship between you and SFP or the authors / publishers.
LOCAL LEGAL RESTRICTION
The Swiss Fund Platform Website contains information and documents on numerous collective investment schemes and is intended only for qualified investors in Switzerland and Liechtenstein. The Swiss Fund Platform Website is expressly not directed at any person in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person's nationality, tax residence or otherwise) the publication of or access to the Swiss Fund Platform Website is prohibited. Persons subject to such local restrictions are prohibited from accessing the Swiss Fund Platform Website. No copies, printouts or stored data from this website may be made available to the aforementioned persons in any other way. Information on collective investment schemes and documents are provided either by Swiss Fund Platform or by the fund company or other companies themselves. If the information and documents are provided by the companies on the Swiss Fund Platform website, they are based on the information provided by the fund companies or other companies in connection with the distribution licenses of the investment funds. Swiss Fund Platform cannot be held liable for incorrect information regarding the distribution license. If the information and documents on the Swiss Fund Platform website are provided by the fund companies or other companies themselves, the fund provider is responsible for the correct distribution licenses.
LINKS TO OTHER WEBSITES
This website may contain links (URLs) to third party websites and social networks. The linked websites and their content are not under the control of Swiss Fund Platform AG. Their accuracy, accessibility and availability are not guaranteed. SFP reserves the right to modify or remove links at any time. Any responsibility for the links and the content of the linked websites and the use of the links and linked content is disclaimed; access to and use of such websites is at your own risk.
INTANGIBLE PROPERTY RIGHTS
The intellectual property rights, in particular copyright and related rights, to this website (text, images, logos, trademarks, files, etc.) are the sole property of the authors / publishers or Swiss Fund Platform AG or other rights holders, unless otherwise stated.
For private, non-commercial use, it is permitted to download, temporarily store (browser cache) and print out the content, provided that it is reproduced unchanged and in full and with reference to the source. Forwarding of printouts for private, non-commercial use is permitted only if the recipient accepts this disclaimer.
Distribution in electronic form is prohibited. The content may not be reproduced, duplicated, copied or distributed in print, electronically or in any other way without the written consent of the copyright holder. This includes, but is not limited to, displaying the content in a frame on a website, creating derivative works, or using the content in any other way for commercial or public purposes. The systematic retrieval or linking of content (automated or manual) to create a collection, database or directory is not permitted without the written consent of Swiss Fund Platform AG.
TECHNICAL DEFECTS
Swiss Fund Platform AG endeavors, but is not obliged, to keep the website accessible and free of technical defects to the extent and for as long as it is published. Swiss Fund Platform AG does not guarantee that the website or the newsletter or other published content is free of harmful components (viruses, worms, etc.).
DATA PROTECTION
You can find all information about data protection in our privacy policy: LINK
UPDATE DATE
This disclaimer was last updated on 08/09/2023.
01/13/2020
Natixis Investment Managers