Das vergangene Jahr wurde von den meisten Beobachtern als historisch empfunden. Mit dem Krieg in der Ukraine, der kräftig anziehenden Inflation, dem raschen Abschied von der Ära des billigen Geldes und dem Energieschock gab es einen ganzen Strauß an belastenden Faktoren für die Anleger. An den Kapitalmärkten schnitten Aktien mit einem Verlust von durchschnittlich 15 Prozent zwar schwach ab, es war aber gemessen an anderen Börsencrashs der jüngeren Vergangenheit – außer für überbewertete Tech-Werte – keine Katastrophe. Anleiheinvestoren hingegen erlebten einen perfekten Sturm mit Ver-lusten von mehr als 17 Prozent z.B. bei europäischen Staatsanleihen. Dies traf viele, die sich in einem vermeintlich sicheren Hafen wähnten, doch sehr unerwartet. Liegt das Schlimmste nun hinter uns?
Zunächst einmal werden die Themen von 2022 uns – wenn auch in abnehmender Stärke – im neuen Jahr weiter beschäftigen. Die Inflation wird in den USA schneller sinken als in Europa. Die Kerninflationsraten (ohne Energie- und Lebensmittelpreise) werden entscheidend für den weiteren Lauf der Dinge sein. Nur wenn auch diese Inflationskennzahl fällt, wird es den Notenbanken möglich sein, von ihrem restriktiven Kurs abzurücken. Wie sensibel die Märkte auf die Geldpolitik reagieren, zeigte sich im Dezember in der Reaktion auf einen als zu harsch empfundenen Ton rund um eine ansonsten wie erwartet ausfallende Zinserhöhung. Die plötzliche Abkehr Chinas von der Null-Covid-Politik birgt angesichts hoher Infektionszahlen Risiken für die Lieferketten, könnte aber auch im Laufe des Jahres einen Wachstums- und leider auch einen Kostenschub in einem rezessiven Umfeld auslösen. Mit diesen Unwägbarkeiten werden wir vorerst weiter leben müssen, weswegen viele Anleger eine weiter abwartende Haltung einnehmen.
Im ersten Schritt Anleihen, später Aktien
Aus Bewertungssicht haben Anleihen die Nase vorn. Seit mehreren Monaten sind die Kurzfristzinsen höher als die langfristigen Zinsen, was in der Regel als Signal für eine bevorstehende Rezession gewertet wird. Zwar hat sich diese Kurveninversion zuletzt teilweise korrigiert. Dennoch erwarten die Anleger immer noch, dass ein schwieriges Konjunkturumfeld die Fed zu ersten Zinssenkungen noch in diesem Jahr veranlassen könnte. Wir glauben nicht, dass diese Wette aufgehen wird. Während bei Staatsanleihen weiterhin Vorsicht geboten ist, bieten Unternehmensanleihen wieder gute Renditechancen. Trotz der jüngsten Spread-Einengung liegen die Renditen auf historischen Höchstständen und bieten somit einen Puffer für den Fall weiterer, auch unerwarteter Zinserhöhungen.
Emittenten im Investment-Grade-Segment verfügen über ausreichend Liquidität, um auch schwierigeren Phasen zu trotzen. Auch Aktien sind jetzt attraktiver bewertet. Noch war die Korrektur nicht ausreichend stark genug, um alle Überbewertungen abzubauen. Insbesondere in den USA sind die Risikoprämien nicht allzu üppig. Europa scheint hingegen für eine Phase weiter steigender Zinsen besser gerüstet. Bei den Währungen könnte die divergierende Geldpolitik auf beiden Seiten des Atlantiks dem Höhenflug des Dollars ein Ende setzen.
Nach unserer Einschätzung sollte der Fokus zunächst auf Anleihen gelegt werden, um in einem zweiten Schritt im späteren Jahresverlauf die Aktienquoten zu erhöhen. Dabei würden wir die folgenden Prioritäten setzen:
Renten: Sowohl Investment-Grade- als auch High-Yield-Anleihen bieten unseres Erachtens interessante Einstiegsmöglichkeiten. Angesichts des attraktiven Rendite-Risiko-Profils ist unser Favorit das Euro-High-Yield-Segment, in dem selbst in extremen Negativszenarien noch positive Renditen möglich sind.
Aktien: Ausgehend von unserem Basisszenario einer moderaten Rezession in Europa und einer globalen Wachstumsabschwächung bieten europäische Aktien, insbesondere die weiterhin stark unterbewerteten Value-Aktien, Kurspotenzial. Europäische Banken, die von steigenden Zinsen profitieren, werden ebenfalls mit einem Abschlag gehandelt, der sich nicht allein durch ihre im Vergleich zu US-Instituten schwächere Profitabilität rechtfertigen lässt. US-Tech-Werte haben mittlerweile deutlich abgewertet. Anleger, die an die Zukunft der Digitalisierung glauben (und wer tut das nicht), finden nun in Bereichen wie Zahlungsverkehr und Finanzdienstleistungen, E-Commerce oder KI/Cloud Computing marktführende Unternehmen zu Preisen, wie sie schon lange nicht zu beobachten waren. Bei den Nebenwerten, die zuletzt etwas zurückgefallen sind, gilt es zunächst abzuwarten, bis die Zinsen ihren Höhepunkt erreichen. An den Schwellenmärkten sind Bewertungen und Makro-Daten selten so günstig gewesen.
Ausblick: Der Schock von 2022 hallt auch im neuen Jahr nach. Die vor uns liegende neue Ära lässt auf sich warten und erfordert Geduld. Für eine signifikante Neupositionierung müsste die Inflation ihren Zenit erreichen und das Ende des Zinserhöhungszyklus in Sicht sein. Es bedürfte zudem einer Stabilisierung der Renditekurve. Ebenso müssten zentrale Marktindikatoren ihren Tiefstand gesehen haben. Negative Überraschungen im Hinblick auf Inflation und Geldpolitik sind nicht auszuschließen. Insgesamt aber werden wir uns im Verlauf des neuen Jahres mehr auf die Anlagechancen denn auf die Anlagerisiken konzentrieren können.
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01/24/2023
ODDO BHF Asset Management
Investmentstrategie: Anleihen zuerst, Aktien später
Ausgehend von unserem Basisszenario einer moderaten Rezession in Europa und einer globalen Wachstumsabschwächung bieten europäische Aktien, insbesondere die weiterhin stark unterbewerteten Value-Aktien, Kurspotenzial.
Laurent Denize, Global Co-CIO ODDO BHF
