Wie sehen die Makroperspektiven für Hochzinsanleihen aus? Und wie werden sich Tapering und (zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt) Zinserhöhungen auf diese Anlageklasse auswirken?
Aus fundamentaler Sicht halten wir Hochzinsanleihen für eine Anlageklasse, die derzeit recht gut dasteht. Einfach ausgedrückt: Bei wichtigen Bonitätskennzahlen für Unternehmen, wie etwa dem Verschuldungs- und dem Zinsdeckungsgrad, verzeichnen wir einen positiven Trend (sie bewegen sich aber noch nicht wieder auf Vor-Covid-19-Niveau), und Ausfallquoten werden 2022 sowohl in Europa als auch in den USA vermutlich weiterhin auf niedrigem Niveau verharren. Einen weiteren Beweis für diese fundamentale Verbesserung bietet auch die Verlagerung der Bonitätsratings seitens der Ratingagenturen. Hier überwiegen inzwischen die Hochstufungen eindeutig die Herabstufungen. Die jüngsten Lieferkettenprobleme und steigende Kosten geben Anlass zur Sorge, da die Margen bestimmter Unternehmen unter Druck geraten dürften, aber bisher fielen die Unternehmensgewinne alles in allem höher als erwartet aus. Aus Bewertungssicht bietet sich nach wie vor ein wenig berauschendes Bild, ungeachtet unlängst gestiegener Renditen und Spreads.
Das Tapering der Notenbanken einerseits und das Herunterfahren unterstützender geldpolitischer Maßnahmen andererseits stellen im Jahr 2022 die größten Bedrohungen für Risikoanlagen dar. Anleger sollten jedoch beachten, dass sich Hochzinsanleihen in Zeiten steigender Zinsen normalerweise gut entwickeln. Die Anlageklasse profitiert von einem recht defensiven Breakeven-Profil, weshalb das Spread-Polster dazu beitragen kann, die negativen Auswirkungen steigender Zinsen für die Gesamtrendite zu verringern. Die Tatsache, dass Hochzinsanleihen durch starke Fundamentaldaten gestützt werden, spricht unseres Erachtens dafür, dass sie immer noch eine gute Investitionsmöglichkeit darstellen, vor allem verglichen mit zinssensitiveren Segmenten des Rentenmarktes wie etwa dem IG-Bereich.
In welchen Ländern ist der Fonds am stärksten investiert? Und warum?
Unter den übergewichteten Positionen unseres Portfolios belegen britische Beteiligungen nach wie vor den Spitzenplatz, obwohl wir unser Engagement in dem Land verglichen mit bisherigen Höchstwerten deutlich gesenkt haben. Wir haben festgestellt, dass britische Risikopositionen (und GBP-Anleihen im Allgemeinen) häufig mit größeren Spreads gehandelt werden als vergleichbare Papiere auf dem europäischen Festland. Großbritannien bietet aber weiterhin zahlreiche Anlagechancen, vor allem im Freizeit- und Einzelhandelssektor. Verzichten tun wir hingegen im globalen Hochzinsbereich auf Investments in problematischere Segmente des Schwellenländeruniversums. Ein nennenswertes Beispiel in diesem Zusammenhang ist China, und der chinesische Immobiliensektor im Besonderen.
Welche Sektoren bieten in Ihren Augen die besten Renditen?
Im globalen Hochzinsbereich zählt der Energiesektor derzeit zu den renditeträchtigsten Branchen. Wir haben diesen Sektor allerdings gegenwärtig untergewichtet, nicht zuletzt wegen negativer ESG-Auswirkungen, die viele Unternehmen belasten, und der möglichen Herausforderungen mit Blick auf die langfristige Refinanzierung ihrer Schulden. Lukrative Anlagechancen bietet darüber hinaus auch der Freizeitsektor. Ihre Zahl hat sich jedoch verringert und sie sind dünner gesät, da wir die Pandemie langsam aber sicher hinter uns lassen.
Welche Länder und Sektoren gilt es hingegen zu vermeiden? Und warum?
Wie bereits erwähnt stehen wir gewissen Segmenten des Schwellenländeruniversums vorsichtig gegenüber, weshalb wir auf Engagements in China, Brasilien oder in der Türkei verzichten. Einerseits sprechen eindeutige Gründe gegen Investitionen in einige der stärker verschuldeten chinesischen Immobilienentwickler, andererseits finden wir darüber hinaus zumeist auch attraktivere Anlagechancen in anderen Ländern. Auf Sektorebene stellt die Chemieindustrie ein gutes Beispiel für eine Branche dar, die gegenwärtig mit Vorsicht zu genießen ist. Denn viele Unternehmen aus dieser Branche werden wegen des jüngsten Anstiegs der Rohstoffpreise zweifelsohne unter Margendruck geraten.
Könnten Sie uns Ihren Ansatz anhand einiger Beispiele verdeutlichen?
Aus Top-down-Sicht verfolgen wir derzeit einen vorsichtigen Ansatz. Im Allgemeinen haben wir daher bisher die Laufzeitenstruktur vorrangiger Anleihen verlängert und setzen vorzugsweise auf das Spread-Risiko am kurzen Ende, vor allem bei Anleihen mit B-Rating, als auf zinsanfälligere Papiere mit längerer Laufzeit. Angesichts der derzeitigen Bewertungen sollten sich Anleger darüber im Klaren sein, dass sich die Konvexität nicht zu ihren Gunsten entwickelt und daher dem Schutz vor Kursverlusten mehr Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt werden muss.
Auf Einzeltitelebene zählt unter unseren Top-10-Beteiligungen vermutlich unser Engagement im britischen Fitness-Discounter PureGym zu den Positionen, die viele der oben erwähnten Faktoren erfüllen. PureGym ist ein hervorragend gemanagtes Unternehmen, das die Pandemie in unseren Augen bisher außergewöhnlich gut überstanden hat, indem es sich darauf fokussiert hat, die Cash-Burn-Rate auf ein Minimum zu reduzieren, um auf diese Weise größtmögliche Liquidität sicherzustellen. Das Unternehmen hat unlängst Kapital aufgenommen und generiert wieder Wachstum. So verzeichnet es in Großbritannien inzwischen mehr Mitglieder als vor Ausbruch der Pandemie. Das Geschäft profitiert vom anhaltenden Gesundheitstrend und ist wegen seines preisgünstigen Leistungsangebots vermutlich weniger zyklisch als von vielen erwartet. Die GBP-Anleihen in unserem Portfolio haben sich als außergewöhnliche Renditequelle erwiesen und stellen nach wie vor eines der größten Engagements in unserem Fonds dar.
Wie hoch ist der Portfolioumschlag des Fonds? Und wie lange ist die durchschnittliche Haltedauer eines Titels in Ihrem Portfolio? Haben Sie den Portfolioumschlag in den vergangenen Jahren erhöht?
Der Portfolioumschlag unserer Kernstrategien liegt bei etwas über 100%. Es gibt keine feste Haltedauer für die Titel in unserem Portfolio. Manchmal machen wir niedrig bewertete Titel ausfindig, die wir sehr lange halten. Unser Portfolio umfasst aber auch eindeutig taktisch ausgerichtete Investments, die das von uns angestrebte Kursziel möglicherweise deutlich schneller erreichen, weshalb wir uns rascher von ihnen trennen. Wir legen besonderen Wert darauf sicherzustellen, dass der Investment Case für jede unserer Beteiligungen intakt ist und dass Bewertung und Positionsgröße in Einklang mit unserer Anlagethese stehen. Sobald eine dieser Voraussetzungen nicht mehr erfüllt ist, greifen wir gewöhnlich ein. Ich möchte jedoch darauf hinweisen, dass eine fair bewertete Anleihe nach wie vor eine sehr sinnvolle Carry-Quelle darstellen kann – und schließlich sind es vor allem die Einkommensströme, die die Performance im Hochzinsbereich bestimmen.
12/08/2021
Aegon Asset Management
Aegon High Yield Global Bond update
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